![]() ![]() Small changes in these equations can lead to rather substantial differences in forecasts.Īnd third, forecast models have different levels of detail (resolution) and can struggle to properly account for steep terrain like the mountains where we ski and ride. ![]() Second, forecast models differ in the math and physics equations that they use to move from the current condition of the atmosphere and turn that into a weather prediction. Even with a sophisticated measurement network including satellites, radars, weather balloons, ground-based weather stations, planes, and ships, forecast models must make assumptions to fill in the gaps between actual weather observations, in places like oceans, large forests, deserts, etc. Why do different models provide different forecasts?įirst, forecast models differ in how they collect the current weather conditions across the globe. This is for the United States and southern Canada from September 24 – October 10, 2019, from the American GFS model. Blue colors help to identify storm systems. Here's a 16-day forecast for the weather pattern at about 18,000 feet. Here's a 16-day precipitation forecast for the United States and southern Canada from September 24 – October 10, 2019, from the American GFS model. Here's a 16-day snow forecast for the United States and southern Canada from September 24 – October 10, 2019, from the American GFS model. What we often show, and what you often see, are graphics and charts that are created from this underlying data. Weather models provide gigabytes of forecast data each time that they run.
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